NATO answers the wake-up call

NATO’s 32 members recently gathered in Washington for the 75th anniversary summit of the alliance. As the summit ended, alliance leaders issued a 5,300-word declaration underscoring that NATO is committed to deterring war, defending the free world against a surging axis of autocracy and defeating Moscow’s designs in Ukraine.

More aggression Emphasizing that their “commitment to defend one another and every inch of allied territory at all times, as enshrined in Article V of the Washington Treaty, is iron-clad,” NATO’s leaders say that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine “has shattered peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area and gravely undermined global security … Russia remains the most significant and direct threat to allies’ security.” They bluntly add, “We cannot discount the possibility of an attack against allies’ sovereignty and territorial integrity,” pointing to the risk of “hybrid operations against allies” that “could lead the North Atlantic Council to invoke Article V.”

Indeed, the past 12 months have seen Moscow threaten military and/or hybrid attacks against the United States, Germany, Finland, Sweden and Britain. NATO intelligence officials have sounded the alarm over a possible Russian attack on the Baltics. Russian assets have been arrested – or are suspected – in a spate of fires, attempted sabotage operations and attempted assassinations throughout NATO territory, including in the United States, Britain, France, Poland, Germany and the Czech Republic.

“Russia is fighting the West in the West,” a NATO official concludes.

Of course, any number of Russian acts of aggression the past decade-plus could have – should have – reawakened NATO to the danger. Before Russia’s 2022 lunge at Kiev, there was Russia’s use of a banned chemical nerve-agent to assassinate Russian nationals on British territory, cyber-siege of America’s energy supply and food supply, 2014 invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine, mock nuclear strikes targeting Poland and violation of numerous arms-control treaties.

More threats “The threats we face are global and interconnected,” NATO’s leaders conclude, citing “Iran’s destabilizing actions,” “China’s stated ambitions and coercive policies,” “the deepening strategic partnership between Russia and the PRC and their … attempts to undercut and reshape the rules-based international order,” “direct military support to Russia” provided by North Korea and Iran, and “sustained malicious cyber and hybrid activities” by these hostile nations.

“Authoritarian regimes are aligning more and more,” outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg adds.

And so, the free world’s response is increasingly interconnected – the leaders of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and Ukraine participated in the summit – and increasingly steered by NATO.

“The Indo-Pacific is important for NATO, given that developments in that region directly affect Euro-Atlantic security,” NATO’s leaders explain in the summit declaration, recognizing that success or failure in defending the free world’s frontlines in Europe has a direct bearing on the decision-making of those who want to roll back the free world in Asia. To their credit, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea grasp this – and have contributed to Ukraine’s defense.

Specific to the European front of this battle between the free world and the axis of autocracy, all 32 NATO members declared they “will never recognize Russia’s illegal annexations of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea,” that “Russia bears sole responsibility for its war of aggression against Ukraine,” that “ Ukraine’s future is in NATO,” that “Ukraine’s fight for its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders directly contributes to Euro-Atlantic security,” and that NATO nations will “provide sustainable levels of security assistance for Ukraine to prevail.”

All 32 members agreed to that statement – an impressive display of unity and an emphatic answer to Russia’s relentless divide-and-conquer disinformation campaign.

More investment, more commitment Words are important, but actions are more important. The good news is that NATO’s members are offering more than words to the common defense.

More than 70% of the alliance – 23 members – have met NATO’s stated standard of investing at least 2% of GDP in defense. “Defense expenditure by European allies and Canada has grown by 18% in 2024,” the summit declaration reports.

It’s no coincidence and no surprise that allies in closer geographic proximity to Russia are spending more on defense. These allies recognize, in a very concrete way, that investing in defense is a matter of survival.

Poland is spending more than 4% of GDP on defense and will increase that to 5% next year. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all are above 3% of GDP. Investing 2.4% of GDP in defense, Finland has nearly doubled defense spending since 2019. Sweden has doubled defense spending since 2020 and plans to increase defense spending to 2.6% of GDP.

Germany has almost doubled defense spending since 2022. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius wants his country to boost defense spending to 3% of GDP and reinstate the draft.

France is increasing defense spending by 40% between 2024 and 2030.

NATO members are investing these additional resources in equipment, units and deployments focused on deterring Russia.

“We have deployed in-place combat-ready forces on NATO’s eastern flank, strengthened forward defenses and enhanced the alliance’s ability to rapidly reinforce any ally that comes under threat,” the summit declaration points out.

Indeed, NATO is fortifying the network of battlegroups based in the alliance’s most at-risk members.

The United States leads the NATO battlegroup in Poland. Some 10,000 U.S. troops are deployed in Poland. The U.S. Army’s V Corps headquarters is located in Poland. And a new U.S. missile-defense site in Poland was declared operational in July.

Leading the battlegroup in Estonia, Britain is deploying 20,000 troops to defend NATO’s northern flank.

Germany leads the battlegroup in Lithuania and is building a permanent base there for its 5,000 troops. 

Canada leads the Latvia battlegroup. Italy leads the battlegroup in Bulgaria, where U.S. forces also are deployed. Hungary leads its own battlegroup, with support from U.S. and other allied forces. Spain steers the Slovakia battlegroup, with support from U.S. and other allied units. France heads up the battlegroup in Romania, where U.S. units also are deployed.

Finland is standing up a new NATO land command, which will include allied troops.

Importantly, Germany, the Netherlands and Poland are carving out military corridors to rapidly move troops and equipment from their ports to NATO’s eastern flank.

In addition to expanding its own deterrent capabilities, Poland is hosting NATO’s new joint training center, which will be capable of training “millions” of Ukrainian soldiers, according to Polish defense officials.

NATO’s nine members bordering the Baltic are jointly procuring naval mines to deter Russian maritime encroachment.

In the skies, Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark are merging their air forces into a unified force of 250 top-of-the-line warplanes – thus concentrating capabilities and streamlining command and control. A rebuilt airbase in Romania – set to become NATO’s largest airbase in Europe – will house 10,000 NATO personnel and is already hosting F-16s, F/A-18s, Typhoons and Reapers. And a refurbished Soviet-era airbase in Albania, opened in March, is now hosting NATO jets.

During the summit, Canada, Finland and the United States unveiled their Icebreaker Collaboration Effort – dubbed “ICE Pact” – a joint effort to expand production of polar icebreakers and enhance polar capabilities.

Also during the summit, in the most eyebrow-raising example of concrete allied action, the United States and Germany announced deployment on German territory of hypersonic weapons (capable of traveling at least five times the speed of sound), Tomahawk land-attack missiles (with a 1,000-mile range) and SM-6 missile systems (providing air-and-missile defense). Related, Stars and Stripes reports the U.S. Army has relaunched the 56th Artillery Command (a key part of the U.S. European Command’s Cold War toolbox, which provides long-range firepower options) and stood up the 2nd Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany (designed to give EUCOM “capabilities beyond conventional ground-war tactics”).

More to do NATO’s post-summit to-do list remains long. The summit declaration mentions enhancements to NATO’s integrated air and missile defenses, integration of space assets and threats into alliance operations, development of the new Integrated Cyber Defense Center, and protection of critical undersea infrastructure. But at the top of NATO’s to-do list is increasing the industrial capacity of its members.

“There is no way to provide strong defense without a strong defense industry,” Stoltenberg observes.

And so, NATO allies are recommitting to long-term defense industrial cooperation, which the summit declaration calls “a critical part of NATO’s deterrence.” Toward that end, NATO’s leaders signed a pledge during the Washington Summit geared toward “accelerating multinational procurement, enhancing the implementation of standards to increase interoperability, removing barriers to trade and investment, and securing critical supply chains.”

European NATO members are jointly purchasing 1,000 Patriot missiles to backfill missiles sent to Ukraine. NATO has ordered $700 million worth of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. NATO is investing $1.2 billion to help its members replenish their 155mm artillery stocks. A coalition of NATO nations is supplying Ukraine with a million drones.

U.S. defense firms will increase artillery-shell production from 14,000 a month in 2021 to 70,000 per month next year – and 85,000 per month in 2028. Germany has quadrupled tank-shell production to 240,000 rounds per year. Sweden is quadrupling production of anti-tank weapons. Europe’s largest munitions producer will produce 600,000 shells this year, up from 150,000 in 2022.

“We need to prepare our forces for full-scale conflict,” Gen. Wieslaw Kukula, chief of staff of the Polish army, grimly concludes.

We also need to prepare and posture our industries for conflict. As history teaches, being prepared for war is the surest way of preventing it.