A NATO counterpart takes shape in the face of China’s aggression.
A bill introduced in Congress would direct the president to establish a task force to “determine whether a collective security agreement between the United States and Indo-Pacific allies and partners could serve as an effective deterrent to further aggression” by North Korea and/or China.
Whether or not that measure becomes law, an Indo-Pacific treaty organization – “IPTO,” for lack of a better term – may be an idea whose time has finally come. In fact, an Indo-Pacific analog to NATO may even now be taking shape as an organic reaction to Beijing’s belligerence.
Cause For the history books, for the PRC’s apologists, for thoughtful observers who worry that a U.S.-led alliance might provoke the PRC, for less-than-thoughtful observers who blame China’s neighbors for China’s actions, any discussion about an Indo-Pacific alliance has to start with Beijing’s behavior. Nothing brings disparate peoples together quite like a common enemy. And make no mistake, China has chosen to act like an enemy.
Xi Jinping is engaging in the largest peacetime buildup in history, supersizing his navy, tripling his nuclear force, claiming 90% of the South China Sea based on a map drawn by Chinese cartographers, and constructing and militarizing illegal islands to annex the South China Sea in piecemeal fashion. About one-third of global shipping travels through the South China Sea, including nearly 6% America’s trade, more than 19% of Japan’s, 11.8% of Britain’s and 30% of India’s. Xi wants to become the gatekeeper of this critical sea lane – and in doing so, to hold sway over the prosperity of his democratic foes.
After absorbing Hong Kong in 2020 – in brazen violation of international treaties – Xi is taking aim at Taiwan, crashing Taiwan’s networks, cutting (repeatedly) communications cables connecting Taiwan’s islands, interfering in Taiwan’s political system, vowing to absorb the isolated nation, ringing the island democracy with air and naval assets, and wargaming attacks on Taiwan. Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet from 2021 to 2024, warns that China’s military exercises around Taiwan are so fluid and constant that soon “we'll be at a point where a force sufficient to execute a profound military operation is in the field and operating under a fig leaf of exercise.”
In addition, the PRC has attacked Indian border positions, assaulted Philippine vessels in international waters, violated the territorial waters of Japan and the Philippines, bullied allied ships operating in international and sovereign territorial waters, hacked Japan’s defense ministry, and planted cyber-timebombs inside U.S. critical infrastructure.
Reaction That list of PRC acts of aggression explains why Beijing’s neighbors are building up and, increasingly, teaming up. This process of coalescing in the face of an aggressive common enemy – known as counterbalancing or balance-of-power strategy – is as natural and as predictable as the laws of physics. Greek city-states embraced it to confront Persia, multiple European coalitions to confront and defeat Napoleon, NATO to confront and contain Moscow. In every way, this counterbalancing act in the Indo-Pacific is a reaction to Beijing, not a provocation of Beijing.
Leading the way is longtime U.S. treaty ally Japan. Japan is entering into reciprocal access agreements (RAAs) with Australia, Britain and the Philippines (enabling each nation to deploy military assets on the other’s territory), hosting air exercises with India, and providing arms and training to Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
Tokyo is almost-doubling defense spending and is on track to become the world’s third-highest defense-spending power. Japan is using those investments to field two aircraft carriers armed with F-35Bs, deploy a lethal force of attack submarines and a fleet of Aegis missile-defense warships, and bolster defenses across its southwestern island territories: F-35Bs on Kyushu (the southernmost of Japan’s main islands); anti-ship, air-defense and electronic-warfare units on islands south of Kyushu; air-defense and missile-defense units on Yonaguni Island (just 70 miles east of Taiwan) and Ishigaki Island (200 miles east of Taiwan).
Speaking of Taiwan, Tokyo vows to “closely cooperate” with Washington in the event of a PRC attack on Taiwan. “If a major problem took place in Taiwan … it could relate to a survival-threatening situation,” Japan's deputy prime minister has said. “Okinawa could be the next.” Such a situation would force Japan “to exercise its right of collective self-defense” and come “to the aid of an ally under attack,” Reuters explains. A PRC attack on Taiwan would surely involve Japan’s chief ally, the United States.
Just as the island democracy of Britain was America’s bridgehead to the main theater of Cold War I, the island democracy of Japan is America’s bridgehead to the main theater of Cold War II. Japan hosts 50,000 U.S. troops, homeports a U.S. aircraft carrier, provides basing to fifth-generation U.S. warplanes, and co-develops and networks missile-defense assets with the U.S. military.
With North Korea recklessly conducting missile tests, Japan recently took the head-turning step of purchasing 500 U.S land-based Tomahawk cruise missiles. As Tokyo explains, the Tomahawks give Japan “the capability to halt ballistic missile attacks within the territory of our adversaries” (code for North Korea and China). Japan’s deployment of Tomahawks also helps U.S. treaty ally South Korea by providing a kind of offshore second-strike capability – and giving North Korea something more to worry about.
For its part, South Korea has increased defense spending 37% in recent years. U.S., South Korean and Japanese warships are conducting joint missile-defense exercises and joint antisubmarine drills. During a historic summit last year, the countries’ leaders unveiled a system to “coordinate their responses to regional challenges, provocations and threats,” announced annual trilateral military exercises, launched a data-sharing system to detect North Korean missile launches, activated a system to detect and counter North Korean cyberattacks, and approved cooperation on “maritime law-enforcement capacity-building and maritime domain awareness.”
In addition, South Korea is reaching well beyond its immediate neighborhood. ROK military units have deployed to U.S. treaty ally Australia for joint exercises. Australia also is holding bilateral exercises with India and hosting large-scale maritime exercises with its fellow Quad partners (the United States, Japan, Australia and India comprise the Quad). Australia and India recently signed a logistics-support agreement. The Aussies are hosting U.S. Marines, F-22s and B-52s, doubling their submarine fleet and modernizing their sub fleet. In 2021, America and its closest ally, Britain, invited Australia into a new alliance aimed at delivering nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, while jointly pursuing advances in hypersonic missiles and electronic-warfare systems – all to build up deterrence capabilities in the Indo-Pacific.
The Philippines, another U.S. treaty ally, has opened nine bases to U.S. assets. The United States and the Philippines are conducting joint patrols to protect South China Sea waterways. And in mid-2024, the United States announced a “once-in-a-generation investment” in the Philippine military – some $500 million in assistance to modernize and upgrade Manila’s defenses against PRC encroachment.
America is not alone in helping the Philippines. Canada, France and New Zealand are hammering out reciprocal access agreements (RAAs) with Manila. Japan has supplied coastal-patrol ships and radar systems to enhance Manila’s ability to monitor and protect its territorial waters against PRC aggression. Underscoring Japan’s growing commitment to the Philippines and growing recognition of the links between the security of Japan and the Philippines, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan joined President Joe Biden and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. for a summit this past spring. The trio pledged to deepen coordination of maritime-domain awareness and joint training, condemned PRC aggression, and committed to a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Toward that same goal, Australian, Canadian and Philippine warships carried out joint freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea this past spring. And in August, U.S. warships and aircraft joined those three treaty allies for air and sea FONOPs.
Though not formal allies, India and the United States are increasingly collaborating to contain their common adversary. Indian ports are servicing U.S. warships. U.S. bombers have landed at bases in India. And U.S. soldiers have joined Indian troops for exercises just 62 miles from the India-PRC border.
Global This emerging alliance of alliances is global, not regional.
“The PRC’s stated ambitions and coercive policies continue to challenge our interests, security and values,” NATO’s leaders recently announced. “The PRC continues to pose systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security.” Thus, NATO has vowed to “stand up for our shared values and the rules-based international order, including freedom of navigation” and “strengthen dialogue and cooperation with new and existing partners in the Indo-Pacific.”
Key NATO members – in addition, of course, to the United States – are putting muscle behind those words. For instance, British, French, Italian, Spanish and Canadian assets are at work in the Indo-Pacific deterring Beijing.
Britain dispatched the carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth to the Pacific on its first deployment. Britain is permanently stationing warships in the region. And Britain and Italy are partnering with Japan on development of a sixth-generation fighter-bomber.
France has 7,000 troops, 20 warships and dozens of warplanes based in the Indo-Pacific. France also has deployed the carrier Charles de Gaulle throughout the region, joined the United States in conducting FONOPs in the South China Sea and even sailed warships through the Taiwan Strait.
Germany has sailed warships through the Taiwan Strait this year, dispatched warships to the Indo-Pacific, and delivered military aid to India, Singapore and Japan. Germany and Japan in July signed an agreement enabling their armed forces to share supplies – including fuel and ammunition. German and Japanese troops are planning joint land exercises in Japan next year. South Korea and Germany signed an intelligence-sharing agreement in 2023. And German fighter-bombers and midair refuelers deployed to Japan and Australia this year for training with allied and partner air forces.
Does all of this add up to an alliance, an alliance of alliances, a hub-and-spoke security partnership, a chain-link fence around China, a balance of power, or an alliance in all but name?
The most accurate answer to that question – and indeed the best answer – may be all of the above.
- Landing Zone