Joint military exercises and beefed-up defenses put Russia, China and Iran on notice.
In late 2022, when intelligence pointed toward Russia using a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin contacted Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, to deliver a blunt message: “We know you are contemplating the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine … Any use of nuclear weapons on any scale against anybody would be seen by the United States and the world as a world-changing event. There is no scale of nuclear weapons that we could overlook.”
After Shoigu responded by huffing, “I don’t take kindly to being threatened,” Austin ended the conversation by explaining, “Mr. Minister, I am the leader of the most powerful military in the history of the world. I don’t make threats.”
This episode, as described in Bob Woodward’s new book, “War,” paints only a partial picture of what was happening – quite literally – between Moscow and Washington in 2022. Austin’s words would be just that – words – without the array of military might the United States had assembled in response to Moscow’s assault on Ukraine: B-52s forward-deployed to Britain; some conducted sorties along the Ukraine-Romania border; F-35s, F-16s and F-15s deployed to Germany, Romania, Poland, Lithuania and Estonia; AH-64 attack helicopters moved into the Baltics and Poland; thousands of combat troops deployed to Poland; an armored brigade combat team of 7,000 soldiers dispatched to Germany; hundreds more troops sent to Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania – all swelling U.S. troop strength to levels 30% higher than before Russia’s February 2022 invasion.
All this served as the exclamation point to Austin’s words – and an unmistakable signal to Putin, Shoigu and the rest of the Russian high command that going nuclear weapon would trigger “catastrophic consequences for Russia.”
Signal-sending of this sort is key to defending U.S. interests, maintaining some semblance of international order and preventing great-power war.
To Russia with love America isn’t the only member of the free world sending signals. Immediately after Putin’s invasion, NATO activated its 40,000-strong rapid-response force for the first time in history, deployed key military units to defend at-risk members on the eastern flank of the alliance and placed 130 warplanes on high alert across Eastern Europe.
NATO’s signals have continued throughout Putin’s war on Ukraine. In January 2024, NATO began its largest military drills since the end of the Cold War – a six-month, multi-domain exercise enfolding 90,000 troops, 900 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 150 tanks, more than 80 warplanes, 50 warships, and personnel from all 32 members operating across 13 countries. NATO military leaders emphasized that the drills were premised on an “Article V scenario.”
Romania this year launched a massive expansion and modernization of a Soviet-era airbase, which will become NATO’s largest airbase in Europe. And Albania christened a refurbished airbase in March. Both facilities are already hosting NATO jets.
Twenty-three members of the alliance now meet or exceed NATO’s standard of investing 2% of GDP in defense. Leading the way, Poland invested more than 4% of GDP on defense this year and will increase that to 5% next year. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all are above 3% of GDP. Finland has nearly doubled defense spending since 2019. Germany has almost doubled defense spending since 2022. France is increasing defense spending 40% between now and 2030.
The United States is doing its part to boost NATO’s signal strength. U.S. troops are forward-deployed in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and especially in Poland. This year, the United States activated a missile-defense base in Poland. B-52 bombers deployed to Poland in September for exercises with Danish, Dutch, German, Polish, Spanish and British warplanes. And the U.S. Army in 2023 stood up a permanent base in Poland. Some 10,000 U.S. troops are now based in Poland – a number likely to grow as the U.S. Air Force shifts refueling operations to Poland.
Perhaps the most eyebrow-raising signal sent to Moscow this year came in July, when the United States and Germany announced deployment – on German territory – of hypersonic weapons and Tomahawk land-attack missiles.
China syndrome The free world also is sending signals to Beijing.
Doubling its investments in defense, Tokyo will boast the world’s third-largest defense budget by 2027 (behind only the United States and China). Japan is acquiring 500 Tomahawk missiles to deter China and North Korea, beefing up defenses on its island territories, deploying two aircraft carriers armed with F-35Bs, fielding a fleet of 22 attack submarines, and partnering with Britain and Italy to develop a sixth-generation fighter-bomber.
This year saw the United States and Japan launch a joint force headquarters to, in Austin’s words, “allow our forces to work together more closely than ever.” In 2023, the United States extended its security guarantee to Japan’s space-based assets – yet another deterrent signal to Beijing.
Wary of China’s actions, the Philippines is opening nine bases to U.S. forces, working with Washington and Tokyo to modernize its military, and training for amphibious assaults alongside Australian and U.S. troops.
Australia has joined Britain and the United States in an alliance focused on equipping the Aussies with nuclear-powered submarines and extending allied deterrent capabilities.
In a geostrategic first, France in July deployed fighter-bombers to the Philippines.
In other firsts, Italy’s flagship aircraft carrier rendezvoused this autumn with one of India's aircraft carriers off the western coast of India for joint exercises. Last summer saw warplanes from the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia, Japan and France deploy to Guam for exercises involving F-35 fighter-bombers, Rafale fighter-bombers, B-52 bombers, refueling aircraft and heavy-lift cargo planes. And Japan in September sailed a warship through the Taiwan Strait.
Annual U.S.-India naval exercises have grown to include Japan and Australia. France is now routinely sending warships to the Indo-Pacific for maneuvers and freedom of navigation operations through the Taiwan Strait. Last month, France deployed the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Indo-Pacific for months-long drills with India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia and Japan.
Not all the Beijing-bound signals are being sent from the sea.
Troops from the United States, Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, Britain and France are now participating in annual military exercises in Indonesia.
U.S. soldiers are training in land-locked Mongolia, which sits between Russia and China. During his history-making visit to the Pentagon last year, Mongolia’s prime minister called America “our strategic third neighbor.”
B-2s deployed to Australia, F-22s deployed to Brunei, Indonesia and the Philippines, and the United States and Australia announced that the number of rotational B-52 deployments to Australia will increase. All this transpired in 2024.
In 2021, a B-1B bomber landed in India – the first time a U.S. bomber ever touched down in India. In 2022, U.S. Army units joined Indian troops for exercises just 62 miles from the India-China border. In 2023, two B-1B bombers – joined by F-15Es, cargo planes and transport planes – conducted joint drills with India’s air force. In 2024, U.S. and Indian Special Operations units trained in the United States, after training in India in 2023.
The past 17 months have seen U.S. Army units on Palau test land-based missiles against seagoing targets, deployment to the Philippines of Army units capable of launching Tomahawks, and the Marine Corps stand up the first of three rapid-deployment units equipped with Tomahawks.
Taiwan Three successive administrations have signaled Beijing to keep its hands off Taiwan. During the Obama administration, two Marine Corps F-18s landed on Taiwan after a Chinese bomber menaced the island.
During his first term, President Donald Trump broke decades of precedent and took a phone call from Taiwan’s president, dispatched a cabinet official to Taiwan (the highest-level U.S. government visit since 1979), allowed U.S. Navy vessels to dock in Taiwan in 2018 and 2019, and quietly deployed U.S. troops to the island to train Taiwanese personnel.
The Biden administration let it be known that U.S. troops were on the island and even increased the number of troops in Taiwan. Moreover, President Joe Biden on multiple occasions insisted that the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack on the island democracy.
Key allies are signaling a willingness to help the United States keep Taiwan free. Australian officials say Canberra would support the United States in defending Taiwan. Japanese officials have declared, “The peace and stability of Taiwan are directly connected to Japan.” And Tokyo appointed a sitting government official to serve as de facto defense attaché to Taiwan.
North Korea After Russia and North Korea unveiled their military pact in the spring of 2024, the United States, South Korea and Japan conducted their first-ever trilateral air-sea exercises. The United States also deployed the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to South Korea. This followed the United States and South Korea conducting their largest-ever air exercises.
B-1B bombers deployed to South Korea in October, joining the nation’s fighter-bombers in simulated bombing runs.
These signals follow joint maneuvers in 2022 above and around South Korea’s Jeju Island by an armada of U.S. B-52s, U.S. F-22s, ROK F-35s and ROK F-15Ks.
Iran After Iran unleashed Hamas against Israel in late 2023, Washington used the Navy to signal Tehran – rushing two carrier strike groups, an amphibious assault ship, the 6th Fleet’s command-and-control ship USS Mount Whitney and numerous other assets to the region. In late 2024, Washington used the Air Force. forward-deploying a package of six B-52s to Qatar.
In October, the Israeli Air Force struck a range of targets adjacent and connected to Iran’s nuclear program, leaving Iran totally exposed to a devastating follow-on strike. It seems Israel was signaling that if Tehran wants to keep climbing the escalation ladder, the next round would likely be the last for Iran’s military-nuclear complex.
In a similar vein, that same month, U.S. B-2 bombers conducted deep-penetration strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi weapons caches in Yemen. It was the first time the B-2 had been used in combat since 2017-- and another unmistakable signal for Tehran. Austin called the B-2 strikes “a unique demonstration of the United States’ ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened or fortified.”
Earlier this autumn, the Pentagon announced that an Ohio-class submarine armed with 154 land-attack cruise missiles had arrived in U.S. Central Command’s area of responsibility. The Navy doesn’t usually publicize the movement of its submarines. But when this one surfaced in Iran’s neighborhood, the Pentagon released a photo and delivered a not-so-subtle signal to Iran.
The Pentagon has been using submarine surfacings to signal multiple hostile regimes in recent years. U.S. subs have surfaced – and the Pentagon has let the world know about it – in the Indo-Pacific, Sea of Japan, Caribbean Sea and Norwegian Sea in 2024, off the Korean Peninsula and near Iceland in 2023, and in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea in 2022.
All this is a welcome development that America and its allies are relearning the fine art of signal-sending. But the strongest signal Washington could send to Russia, China, Iran and their partners in these early chapters of Cold War II is to follow the blueprint that led to victory in Cold War I: a substantial and sustained commitment to deterrent military strength, as recommended by the Commission on the National Defense Strategy.
- Landing Zone